Signal & Forecast
What's real. What's next.
The insight layer—turning comp data into signals for forecasting, planning, and behavior change.
When to Pull This Lever
- • Forecast misses, unexpected cost spikes, or behavior drift
- • Board/CFO asking questions you can't answer from comp data
The Consequences
What It Moves
Cost forecasting • behavior analytics • attainment tracking • signal integration • predictive models
Blast Radius
Forecast misses • cost surprises • behavior drift • blind spots • CFO distrust
Scoreboard
Forecast accuracy % • cost variance • behavior trends • signal coverage
Default Artifacts
Cost forecast model • behavior dashboard • attainment tracker • signal deck
Common Failures
- • Comp data used for payout only, not insight
- • No connection between comp signals and revenue forecast
- • Behavior changes detected after the quarter, not during
- • Cost forecasts disconnected from attainment projections
Fast Wins
- • Build comp cost forecast tied to attainment scenarios
- • Create "behavior drift" dashboard (payout patterns vs. prior periods)
- • Add comp signals to weekly sales leadership review
- • Track leading indicators (pipeline, activity) alongside lagging (payout)
Score This Lever
If you can't answer "yes" with proof, you don't score above 2.
- 1Comp cost forecast exists and is updated monthly
- 2Behavior drift analysis runs (vs. prior periods)
- 3Comp insights included in sales leadership reviews
- 4Leading indicators tracked alongside payout data
- 5Attainment projections inform revenue forecast
Score: 0 (Missing) → 1 (Documented) → 2 (Repeatable) → 3 (Controlled) → 4 (Optimized)
Maturity Ladder
Blind
comp data is payout-only
Reported
dashboards exist but aren't used
Reviewed
leadership sees comp trends
Integrated
comp signals inform forecasts
Predictive
models predict behavior and cost
The Kit
Starter Artifacts
Comp cost forecast • behavior dashboard • attainment report • signal deck